NCAA Basketball Prediction: Illinois vs Purdue

Saturday, February 20, 2010

By BetUS.com

When all is said and done, Purdue Boilermakers will prove itself to be the class of the Big Ten, or at least right up there with last year's national runner-up, Michigan State. The strength of the Purdue Boilermakers is balance and versatility. Robbie Hummel is considered by many to be on the short list of the best all-around players in the Big Ten, center JaJuan Johnson matches Hummel's seven rebounds a game, and E'Twaun Moore has shot 49% and leads the team in scoring. This is a team that could go on a hunt for a #1 tournament seed.

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• ILL has covered four of its last six games
• ILL has won five of its last six games SU
• ILL has covered four of its last five road games
• ILL has won four of its last six road games SU
• ILL has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
• PUR has covered four of its last five games
• PUR has won its last eight games SU
• PUR has played five of its last seven games UNDER the total
• PUR has won 19 of its last 20 home games SU
• PUR has played five of its last six home games UNDER the total

Here are some of the head-to-head NCAA basketball betting trends that are associated with this game:

• PUR has covered six of the last nine meetings
• Six of the last seven meetings have gone OVER the total
• ILL has won four of the last six meetings SU as the home team
• Four of the last six meetings in West Lafayette have gone OVER the total
• ILL has had the shooting edge in five of the last seven meetings
• PUR has had the rebounding edge in four of the last six meetings
• ILL has made more three-pointers in each of the last three meetings
• PUR has made more three-pointers in six of the last nine meetings

Since Purdue has hosted a game in this series, these teams have played three times. Purdue Boilermakers won the last meeting 84-78 at Champaign on January 19, and with it they broke a three-game losing streak. Little-used John Hart came off the bench and scored 14 points for the Boilermakers.

Now they have won eight straight games, beating three teams in the Top 25 - Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State - during that period. You can't underestimate the progress that has been made by Illinois Fighting Illini. The Illini is actually in a position where they can make a case with the NCAA Committee, scoring non-conference wins over Clemson and Vanderbilt, and losing by just two points to Utah and nationally-ranked Gonzaga, not to mention recent wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin, where they shot better than 52% in both. They do need to bounce back, however, from a 34% shooting performance in last Sunday's 72-53 loss to the Buckeyes. Illinois Fighting Illini might be able to do that, having covered three of four games as a road dog.

Purdue has a defensive stopper in Chris Kramer, but there was not much the Boilermakers could do to slow down Demetri McCarney in the first meeting. McCarney shot 50%, got to the free throw line 19 times, and scored 28 points to keep Illinois in the game. Illinois also has enough bigs (Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale - 14.6 rpg between them) to keep Purdue's people occupied.

Illinois Fighting Illini could be some trouble here. At the very least they're going to make Purdue work. We'd be taking the points with Illinois.

BetUS Sportsbook Jay's Prediction: Purdue by 5